Auction Analysis Spotlight: Sotheby’s Spring Hong Kong Series of Sales

Victoria Kleiner, Head of Due Diligence and Digital Art Expertise

The Hong Kong series of Modern and Contemporary auctions at Sotheby’s earlier this month had somewhat mixed results, radiating an overall tepid temperature (Christie’s will hold their own Hong Kong spring season in late May). The fact that 11 lots were removed shortly beforehand indicates that Sotheby’s staffers were aware a bumpy ride might be ahead, with a total of approx. 10 million USD of value removed rather than face the ignominy of being publicly unsold. Within the ‘Now’ Evening Auction – normally an ideal vehicle for ultra-contemporary ‘Wet Paint’ artists to exceed their estimates, only one auction record was set: 406,400 HKD for Arghavan Khosravi, and, even then, this was within estimate.

The total premium results for the Modern and Contemporary Day Sales combined fetched 163,012,700 HKD, a fall from 215,928,650 HKD for the equivalent sale series in April 2023. The fall in value for the Evening Sales was even more dramatic, with a total of 673,407,400 HKD taken this year compared to approx. 1.14 billion HKD the previous April. However, it should be noted that April 2023 was the 50th anniversary of Sotheby’s first auction in Asia, which brought with it a corresponding rise in interest and publicity prior to the sales, and Sotheby’s combined its Modern and Contemporary Evening Sales into a single unit this year, as opposed to separate sales last year.

This April, a surprisingly low result was achieved for Zao Wou-Ki’s ‘Homage to Chillida’, which fetched a premium price of 5,715,000 HKD – half its low estimate – when it had previously almost doubled its high estimate when it was sold at Christie’s London in 2013. In addition, given that Takako Yamaguchi had achieved a new artist record during the ‘Now’ sale in London last month, this momentum could have been expected to be maintained, yet her ‘The Fire Next Time’ sold for a comparatively disappointing premium price of 2,032,000 HKD, at its mid-estimate. Another artist whose market has seen impressive upward momentum in the last couple of years is Salman Toor; however, his ‘Untitled’ portrait sold for a within estimate premium price of 762,000 HKD, a marked fall from the premium price of 187,500 GBP it achieved at Christie’s London in 2021, against an estimate of 20-30,000 GBP. Other ‘Wet Paint’ artists whom have been performing well but received a somewhat unexpected correction during this season were Jadé Fadojutimi, Avery Singer and Nicole Eisenman.

These less than impressive results could have been partially connected to ‘art fatigue’ following the closure of Art Basel only a few days before the auction series commenced, where sales were also reported to be on the slow side, and attendance was down 15% from its peak of 88,000 visitors in 2019. Political and social uncertainty following the introduction of Article 23 on March 24th could have been another contributing factor to this apparent correction to the Modern and Contemporary market in Hong Kong, suggesting that some buyers may decide to be more hesitant within the Asian market in the near future whilst they assess what, if any, ripples the passing of the new law will have on the overall economic health of the city, coupled with wider concerns about the Chinese economy.

Despite these lacklustre results, there were also elements of positivity, with strong results for market stalwarts Monet and Renoir amongst others. In particular, Renoir’s ‘Jardin a Sorrente’ aroused strong competition, selling for a premium price of 24,347,500 HKD, well above its estimate of 12-16,000,000 HKD. Surrealist Wilfredo Lam’s ‘Fruits Tropicaux’ also performed well, achieving a premium price of 11,340,000 HKD, above its estimate of 6-10,000,000 HKD. It will be interesting to see how Christie’s comparable series of sales performs in late May; until then, it is difficult to assess whether these results reflect a decline in interest in Western ‘Wet Paint’ artists in Hong Kong, or just an aberration due to the particular combination of Art Basel HK proximity and the very recent introduction of Article 23.